The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows that Governor Dannel Malloy has a three-point lead over Republican challenger Tom Foley.
Malloy has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, and Foley has 44 percent. Seven percent of voters remain undecided, and Malloy's lead is within the margin of error. Eleven percent say they could still change their mind.
"It looks like a little bit of Malloy breaking out, but again, too close to call," said Douglas Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
This is the third Quinnipiac Poll on the Connecticut governor's race in the last two weeks. This new poll was conducted between October 28 and November 2.
Schwartz said his numbers took into account the last minute news on Sunday that independent candidate Joe Visconti would drop out of the race and endorse republican Tom Foley. Schwartz said that surprise came just as he was wrapping up his poll.
"The good news is we were prepared for it," Schwartz said. "Because, all along, we've been asking the three-way matchup including Visconti and then we've been following up [with] Visconti voters and asking them who their second choice would be."
That led to what Schwartz said was another "somewhat surprising" development: Visconti voters appear to be breaking slightly for Malloy.
"I think the interpretation has to be that the Visconti voters are protest voters who aren't happy with either candidate," Schwartz said. "It's not so much that they are really conservative and all in the corner of Foley, it's just they don't like either candidate and were just sort of aligning themselves with Visconti."
One more election day wildcard is whether or not Visconti supporters will come out and vote on election day. If they do, Schwartz said it's an open question if they'll realize Visconti's dropped out and endorsed Foley, since all three candidates' names will still appear on the ballot.
